The Trap of Being “So Close”

One of the cruelest tricks the market plays on us is the illusion of being “almost right.”The “Almost Won” Illusion

Imagine this: you buy a stock at ₹100. It climbs to ₹109. You feel ecstatic—you almost hit your 10% profit target. Then the stock reverses and drops to ₹95. You hold on, thinking, “It was just at ₹109, it’ll come back.” But it doesn’t. Instead, it falls further to ₹85.

You sit there in disbelief. The thought won’t leave your head: I was so close.The Almost Won Illusion

That’s the power of the almost-win illusion. It convinces you your strategy was right, but unlucky. It keeps you glued to the screen, waiting for a rebound that never comes.

How Casinos Exploit the Same Illusion

This is not just a market phenomenon—it’s psychology. Casinos have mastered it for decades.

Slot machines are programmed to deliver near misses: two cherries perfectly aligned, and the third cherry just barely above the line. Studies show that near misses actually stimulate the brain’s reward system almost as much as real wins.

That’s why gamblers keep pulling the lever. And that’s why traders keep chasing, convinced that their “almost win” means they’re on the right track.

My Painful Lesson With Options

I’ll never forget one specific trade. I was holding an options position that showed ₹2,50,000 profit—on paper.

But I didn’t book it. I told myself, “Just a little more. The trend is strong. Why settle now?”

Within an hour, that profit flipped into a ₹1,50,000 loss.

The sting wasn’t only the money. It was the ghost of the almost-win. My brain kept replaying the moment where I could have walked away victorious. Instead, I let greed, hope, and illusion turn it into pain.

Why the “Almost Win” Is Dangerous

The danger of near wins lies in how they distort reality.

  • They make you believe you’re smarter than the market.
  • They convince you that your strategy is right, even if your execution is reckless.
  • They trap you in hope mode, waiting endlessly for reversals.
  • They feed gambling-like addiction, pulling you deeper into the cycle.

The hardest part? They create a false sense of progress. You start thinking, “I’m getting closer, so next time I’ll nail it.” But the cycle keeps repeating.

The Science Behind Near Misses

Psychologists have studied this phenomenon for years. Near wins light up the same reward pathways in the brain as actual wins.

That’s why:

  • A stock that just misses your profit target feels worse than a small clear loss.
  • A poker hand that was “one card away” from a straight feels impossible to let go of.
  • A trade that reverses right after you exit feels like a personal insult.

The brain confuses “almost” with “getting closer.” But in trading and gambling, almost winning is no different from losing.

Breaking Free From the Illusion

The only cure is brutal honesty. I had to learn this the hard way.

  • Redefine success. Success is not being “close.” Success is executing with discipline. Did you follow your plan? Did you respect your stop loss? That’s what counts.
  • Take profits. If your system tells you to book at 10%, take it. Don’t dream of 12% or 15%. “Just a little more” is the most expensive phrase in trading.
  • Accept reality. Near misses are part of the game. They don’t mean you were right. They don’t mean you’re unlucky. They mean nothing.
  • Detach from ghosts. Don’t let the memory of “what could have been” destroy your next decision. That ghost is not real—it’s your brain tricking you.

A Message From My Experience

I have lost millions chasing the ghost of “almost.” I believed I was just one step away from victory, and that belief kept me locked in destructive cycles.

But the truth is this: almost winning is the same as losing. There are no medals for being close.

When I finally accepted that, I stopped waiting endlessly for reversals. I stopped dreaming of “what could have been.” I started focusing on what I could control: clarity, discipline, and my state of mind.

Final Thoughts: Think or Lose

If you are trapped in the illusion of being “so close,” understand this: your brain is playing tricks on you.

Markets don’t reward “almost.” Casinos don’t reward “near misses.” Life doesn’t reward “close calls.”

Either you managed the trade with discipline, or you didn’t.

The choice is always in your hands: Think… or lose.